International
lekhaka-Jonathan Thomas Jai
On
February
24,
2022,
Russia
launched
a
full-scale
invasion
on
Ukraine.
This
immediately
escalated
the
ongoing
conflict
that
had
begun
in
2014
between
Russia
and
Ukraine.
In
Moscow’s
vision,
it
expected
a
lightning-fast
victory
to
reassert
its
dominance
over
Ukraine,
restrain
NATO’s
growing
presence
on
its
doorstep
but
instead
found
itself
engaged
in
an
extended
bitter
fight.
What
started
as
a
thrust
to
regain
power
very
quickly
became
a
marathon
test
along
economic,
military,
and
diplomatic
planes.
Ukraine’s
grim
resistance,
facilitated
by
an
unprecedented
flow
of
western
arms
and
support,
has
thrown
Russia
into
a
mire
of
unexpected
resources
shrinking,
the
shift
in
global
alliances,
and
an
avalanche
of
internal
pressure
that
would
reshape
the
Kremlin’s
methods.
Today
Russia
stands
at
a
crossroads,
adjusting
to
the
total
implication
of
a
war
that
has
far-reaching
implications
for
the
global
balance
of
power
and
its
own
resilience
in
the
face
of
relentless
challenges.
It
is
heavily
reliant
on
oil
and
gas
exports,
a
lifeline
that
once
bankrolled
its
ambitions-but
this
has
proven
to
be
at
once
an
asset
and
a
liability.
According
to
a
report
issued
by
Russia’s
Finance
Ministry,
sanctions
from
the
West
resulted
in
a
decline
of
30%
of
oil
and
gas
revenues
through
the
first
six
months
of
2023.
To
offset
the
sanctions,
Russia
has
diverted
its
energy
exports
to
new
markets,
with
China
and
India
now
becoming
major
buyers.
“The
loss
of
European
markets
has
forced
us
to
turn
eastward,” admitted
Russian
Deputy
Prime
Minister
Alexander
Novak.
The
economic
cost
of
readjustment
is
extremely
high,
as
Moscow
imposes
emergency
taxes
on
oil
companies
to
pay
for
the
ballooning
cost
of
its
military
campaign.
Analysts
warn
that
these
taxes,
though
effective
in
the
short
term,
are
bound
to
imperil
longer-term
energy
investment
and
drag
down
Russia’s
overall
outlook,
killing
its
war
effort.
In
this
international
isolation,
Moscow
has
found
its
alliance
with
North
Korea,
a
landmark
in
the
dynamics
of
the
war.
From
the
U.S.
intelligence,
it
is
observed
that
at
a
crunch
time,
the
North
Koreans
have
bequeathed
artillery
and
weapons
to
the
Russians.
This
has
drawn
sharp
condemnation,
with
US
Secretary
of
State
Antony
Blinken
calling
it
“an
alliance
of
rogue
states,
a
dark
partnership
built
on
shared
defiance.”
Russian
officials
have
seen
this
as
the
necessary
lifeline.
Military
analysts
caution
that,
though
crude,
they
are
exceedingly
effective
in
large
numbers
and
could
greatly
extend
Russia’s
capacity
to
keep
fighting,
giving
Moscow
a
breathing
space
in
which
to
regroup
its
grander
strategy.
Domestically,
the
Kremlin
fights
an
internal
battle
to
quell
rising
public
discontent
over
inflation,
economic
constraints,
and
the
heavy
human
cost
of
the
war.
Russia’s
central
bank
has
had
to
take
extreme
measures
to
stabilise
the
ruble,
which
has
plummeted
under
the
weight
of
soaring
military
expenses
and
import
restrictions.
Governor
Elvira
Nabiullina
emphasised
the
imperative
of
“keeping
ruble
stability
within
strict
limits
so
as
not
to
allow
it
to
get
overheated.”
Meanwhile,
more
than
anything
else
today,
young
Russians
are
speaking
their
minds,
quite
often
in
private
tones,
on
Russia’s
isolation
from
the
world.
The
shambolic
campaign
against
Ukraine,
coupled
with
endless
censorship
through
the
media,
has
begun
to
reveal
cracks
in
public
opinion
even
as
its
conflict
yields
growing
casualties.
A
recent
internal
survey
conducted
among
Russian
citizens
revealed
that
nearly
40%
of
them
have
doubts
about
the
war-that
contrasted
starkly
with
the
fervent
nationalism
that
had
characterised
public
sentiment
at
the
start.
Doubts
are
beginning
to
flit
across
the
entire
gamut
of
domestic
control
that
Moscow
has
exercised
thus
far.
Internationally,
Russia’s
actions
have
received
withering
rebukes.
President
Joe
Biden
renewed
his
call
for
support
to
Ukraine,
defining
it
as
“a
stand
for
freedom
in
the
face
of
tyranny.”
NATO
Secretary-General
Jens
Stoltenberg
added,
“Russia’s
actions
threaten
the
stability
of
Europe
and
beyond.
Our
response
must
be
united
and
unwavering.”
China,
often
a
silent
player,
has
shown
reluctance
to
endorse
Russia’s
actions
fully.
President
Xi
Jinping
appealed
for
negotiations,
declaring
that
talks
were
“the
only
viable
way
forward.”
This
international
world
condemnation
has
left
Russia
with
few
other
strong
defenders
in
diplomatic
isolation.
In
Ukraine,
the
game
remains
highly
consequential.
Russia’s
ambition
to
overthrow
the
Ukrainian
government
has
dramatically
narrowed
since
this
war
began.
The
Kremlin
now
seeks
to
entrench
its
influence
over
the
Donetsk
and
Luhansk
regions.
“We
will
achieve
our
goals,
either
on
the
battlefield
or
through
diplomacy,”
Foreign
Minister
Sergei
Lavrov
announced,
indicating
Russia’s
willingness
to
talk
if
these
territorial
concessions
are
obtained.
However,
Ukrainian
forces,
bolstered
by
their
new
acquisition
of
the
HIMARS
systems
and
state
of
the
art
air
defence,
have
launched
fierce
counterattacks
which
forced
the
advance
back
and
have
jammed
Moscow’s
road
to
a
definite
win.
The
resistance
has
been
so
fierce
it
has
not
only
turned
the
conflict
around
but
caused
unprecedented
unity
among
NATO
allies
and
further
isolates
Moscow.
Some
new
developments
also
hint
at
potential
game-changers
in
the
coming
months:
U.S.
officials
hinted
plans
that
may
see
advanced
Abrams
tanks
transferred
to
Ukraine
early
next
year,
while
Ukrainian
President
Volodymyr
Zelensky
petitioned
for
ATACMS
long-range
missiles.
Both
will
allow
Ukraine
the
ability
to
assault
key
Russian
positions
located
deeper
within
occupied
territories.
“Our
will
is
invincible,”
Zelensky
said,
implying
that
Ukraine
intends
to
continue
pushing
back
Russian
forces.
If
Ukraine
manages
to
get
hold
of
these
systems,
that
power
dynamic
in
favour
of
the
Ukrainian
forces
will
shift
dramatically.
The
future
may
hold
much
uncertainty
for
Russia.
The
war
cost
continues
to
mount,
financially
and
in
public
support,
and
the
sanction
squeeze
is
unlikely
to
ease
up.
While
political
support
from
North
Korea
may
help
their
military
campaign
in
the
short
term,
its
staying
power
is
another
matter
altogether.
As
the
war
drags
on,
Russia
will
likely
double
down
on
military
consolidation
in
eastern
Ukraine,
deepen
economic
ties
to
authoritarian
allies,
and
intensify
domestic
control
so
as
not
to
lose
its
grip
on
public
dissent.
Yet
the
very
strength
Russia
has
exploited
may
be
nearing
its
limits.
Economists
believe
that,
if
the
sanctions
do
not
stop,
Russia’s
GDP
would
go
down
as
much
as
6%
by
the
end
of
2024,
and
inflation
could
reach
15%
or
more
as
import
shortages
intensify
the
pressure
on
the
economy.
Ultimately,
it
is
the
fate
of
Ukraine
that
will
be
determined,
but
it
will
define
the
position
of
Russia
in
the
world.
It
has
already
been
rewriting
the
dynamics
of
world
powers,
creating
new
alliances
while
reviving
old
animosities.
As
Russia
tries
to
hold
on,
a
great
deal
of
what
the
coming
months
will
define
about
Moscow’s
legacy
in
foreign
policy
will
have
heavy
implications
for
the
global
balance
of
power.
