With Gujarat set to go for polls in two phases in December, the latest ABP-CVoter survey has predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would retain its fortress with a two-thirds majority in the state. According to the survey, BJP is expected to bag anywhere between 134-142 seats in the 182-member assembly.
The Gujarat Assembly polls will be held in two phases on December 1 and December 5. Results will be announced along with Himachal polls on December 8.
Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been won by the BJP for a record six consecutive times but this time they are up against an aggressive AAP and a new look Congress under its president Mallikarjun Kharge.
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In the 2017 election, the BJP won 99 seats in Gujarat and the Congress 77. As per the latest survey, this time, Congress will win 28-36 seats while the AAP is likely to open its account in the state and bag 7-15 seats.
In terms of vote share, BJP is expected to get 45.9 per cent of the votes polled, which is 3.2 per cent less than what it received in the 2017 Gujarat election. Congress is projected to bag only 26.9 per cent of the vote share in the state, a significant swing of -14.5 per cent from the last state assembly election.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has announced Isudan Gadhvi as its chief ministerial candidate, will be able to get 21.2 per cent of the total votes polled, the ABP-CVoter survey found.
Region wise trends as per the survey showed that BJP will garner 45-49 seats in central Gujarat, while Congress is expected to get anywhere between 10-14 seats. Central Gujarat has 61 constituencies.
In north Gujarat, which comprises of 32 constituencies, BJP is likely to bag 20-24 seats while the Congress will get 8-12 seats.
The Bhupendra Patel-led saffron party will dominate south Gujarat and secure victory in 27-31 seats of the total 35 constituencies. Congress will bag just 2-6 seats.
In the 54-seat Kutch-Saurashtra region, BJP will bag anywhere between 38-42 seats while the Congress is expected to win only 4-8 seats. Interestingly, the survey has given AAP 7-9 seats in this region.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 19271 across Gujarat. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]