‘China continues to perceive its relations with India through the prism of India-US relations, with the US using India to counter balance against China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.’
IMAGE: Lieutenant General Hitesh Bhalla, GOC, Fire and Fury Corps, reviewed the Rudra Brigade’s operational readiness. Photograph: Kind courtesy Firefury Corps/Facebook
Key Points
- ‘India-China relationship will be adversarial and tense.’
- ‘LAC will be in a perpetual state of tension.’
- ‘China’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh locks India into a perpetual state of strategic vigilance.’
“Bilateral relations have become more conflictual and tense under Xi Jinping although avenues for cooperation have also increased in international and regional organisations,” says Dr Raj Verma, non-resident scholar, Sigur Centre for Asian Studies, Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University.
“The LAC will be in a perpetual state of tension with concerns that a small skirmish may lead to a conflict or a border war which is in neither country’s interest,” Dr Verma tells Rediff‘s Archana Masih.
Is the recent Chinese claim to the Shaksgam Valley another potentially new area of conflict between the two countries?
China’s position has changed on the Kashmir dispute. It is a function of India-China relations/rivalry. It has evolved based on the India-China rivalry and India-US relations.
China continues to perceive its relations with India through the prism of India-US relations, with the US using India to counter balance against China in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has further strengthened the China-Pakistan axis geared toward India. The Shaksgam Valley is important for China because of the CPEC.
It will continue to claim this area and India will continue to say that China is in illegal occupation of the territory. This territory is disputed between India and Pakistan and Pakistan ceded this area to China under the 1963 treaty.
China’s claim and possession of the Shaksgam Valley is illegal under international law. There is no basis for the Chinese claim. China is a third party.
Once the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan is resolved, then it can be decided who has control over this area and what they want to do with this area. But how will India evict China from this area even if the India-Pakistan dispute is resolved?
China actively supported Pakistan during Operation Sindoor and its influence is growing in Bangladesh — how can India counter the Pakistan-Chinese influence in Bangladesh?
It is correct that China’s and Pakistan’s relations with Bangladesh have strengthened under the interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus. Much will depend on the new government in Bangladesh after the elections.
It will be entirely up to New Delhi how it will manage the bilateral relationship with the new government in Dhaka.
This is where diplomacy comes into play. It will be prudent on India’s part that the prime ministers of the two countries meet as soon as possible to steer the bilateral relationship, understand each other’s redlines and build guardrails.
IMAGE: Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi pins a badge to a soldier during his visit to the forward areas in the Poonch sector to review operational preparedness, February 7, 2026. Photograph: @adgpi X/ANI Photo
China has repeatedly made attempts towards claiming Arunachal Pradesh as a part of South Tibet. What is the historical basis of China’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh?
The Sino-Indian border dispute is a legacy of the British empire. In the eastern sector, the disagreement centres on Arunachal Pradesh, which China refers to as Zangnan or Southern Tibet.
This dispute arises from the McMahon Line, drawn in 1914 at the Simla Convention between British India and Tibet. China never accepted this boundary because it claimed sovereignty over Tibet. Due to various complications, the McMahon Line did not appear on British maps for nearly two decades after the convention, yet it gained importance following India’s Independence in 1947.
What long term challenges does this pose for India?
The long-term challenge is that China’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh locks India into a perpetual state of strategic vigilance, forcing it to defend settled territory against a powerful neighbour that refuses to recognise the status quo.
India has to station troops all the year round which imposes a significant cost on the exchequer. It unsettles India and saps its political, diplomatic and economic energies and stymies India’s quest for great power status. It also makes India wary of China. China can use Arunachal Pradesh as leverage.
For India, the task isn’t just military defence — it’s sustained deterrence, diplomatic consistency, and narrative clarity over decades, not crises.
Photograph: ANI Photo
What is your assessment of India-China relations under Xi Jinping?
Overall, bilateral relations have become more conflictual and tense under Xi Jinping although avenues for cooperation have also increased in international and regional organisations.
Because of China’s great power ambitions, India’s rise (although overshadowed by China’s rise), India’s rapid economic growth as China’s economic growth slows, India’s emergence as a counter weight to China and India-China positional rivalry, the bilateral relationship will be over-all adversarial, and tense.
The more India aligns itself with the US and other countries in the Indo-Pacific, the more China will strengthen its relations with Pakistan and other countries in South Asia leading to a downward spiral.
This does not augur well for the overall bilateral relationship. The LAC will be in a perpetual state of tension with concerns that a small skirmish may lead to a conflict or a border war which is in neither country’s interests as it will stymie both countries’ rise and quest for great power status.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
