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Widespread reports and rumours indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei is in “extremely critical condition”, with opposition and regional media speculating that his death could be imminent
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. (Reuters)
Amid rumours and speculation and Iran’s firm denial that their Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in “extremely critical condition”, one key question emerges – What would his death, if it occurs, mean for the US-Iran war?
News18 looks at the rumours, Iran’s response and the possibilities for the US-Iran war.
WHY THE RUMOURS AROUND MOJTABA KHAMENEI’S DEATH?
Widespread reports and rumours indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei is in “extremely critical condition” at a secure hospital in Tehran, with opposition and regional media speculating that his death could be imminent. The sudden rush of rumours stems from the fact that Mojtaba has not made a single live public appearance or given a public speech since he succeeded his father.
The former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed along with other family members during the heavy US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026. Rumours suggest Mojtaba suffered severe abdominal, leg, and facial injuries in that very same strike, forcing him to govern strictly through written decrees and intermediaries.
Speculation escalated significantly after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian admitted in a state TV interview that direct communication with the Supreme Leader has become very difficult. Outlets like IranWire and Israeli broadcaster Channel 14 cited sources close to the Iranian administration claiming senior officials “would not be surprised if they heard news of his martyrdom soon”, reporting he was intubated and on a ventilator at Sina Hospital under heavy security.
HOW HAS IRAN RESPONDED?
To control panic and project stability during the ongoing war, Iran’s state-backed media reacted swiftly. On August 8, 2026, the semi-official Mehr News Agency released a rare 12-to-13-second video showing Mojtaba composed, dressed in a black turban, and conversing in good health with a group of advisers.
As the video completely lacks a date stamp, time stamp, or verifiable location, independent international observers and opposition circles have widely dismissed it as a recycled, months-old clip used as a propaganda tool.
While Iranian officials insist the Supreme Leader remains healthy and in total command of government affairs, his continued absence from live broadcasts leaves the actual status of his health highly uncertain.
US-IRAN WAR: WHAT HAPPENS IF MOJTABA KHAMENEI DIES?
The death of Mojtaba Khamenei could shift the trajectory of the ongoing US-Iran war by triggering internal leadership chaos, exacerbating power vacuums, or paving the way for hardline escalation.
A Paralyzing Power Vacuum and Internal Fractures: Mojtaba took power under the premise of maintaining stability. Because he has long operated as the “power behind the throne” with deep ties to Iran’s security apparatus, his sudden exit would leave a massive leadership void. Without a clear, universally accepted successor, a fierce internal power struggle could ignite between pragmatists looking to negotiate an end to the war and unyielding hardliners. A fragmented leadership could paralyze Iran’s strategic decision-making, giving the US-led coalition a significant tactical window to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities under operations like “Epic Fury”.
IRGC Takeover and Hardline Escalation: Mojtaba’s appointment by the Assembly of Experts was heavily pushed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to fast-track wartime leadership. If Mojtaba dies, the IRGC could seize absolute control over the political sphere to maintain order during a time of existential threat. Rather than backing down, an IRGC-dominated command might double down on asymmetrical warfare — accelerating proxy attacks, threatening the Strait of Hormuz, or executing the “unforgettable lessons” and vengeance Mojtaba previously promised via written decrees. This would likely force the US into an even broader, conventional regional war.
Increased Leverage for US/Allied Peace Negotiations: Conversely, the removal of the Khamenei dynasty entirely could shatter the ideological resolve of the regime. If moderate factions or figures within the Pezeshkian administration manage to leverage the crisis, the regime might find itself too weak to sustain a multi-front war. Defeat or severe instability at the absolute top could force Tehran to the negotiating table, giving the US immense leverage to dictate ceasefire terms, dismantle regional proxy networks, and impose strict nuclear limits.
Domestically Driven Regime Collapse: Public discontent in Iran remains incredibly high, with anti-regime chants like “Death to Mojtaba” already recorded in places like Tehran’s Ekbatan neighbourhood. The death of a second Supreme Leader in less than six months, combined with economic collapse and wartime resource shortages, could spark widespread, uncontrollable civil unrest. Faced with a revolution at home and an enemy abroad, the Islamic Republic’s war efforts against the US would likely implode from within.
With agency inputs
About the Author
At the news desk for 20 years, the story of her life has revolved around finding pun, facts while reporting, on radio, heading a daily newspaper desk, teaching mass media students to now editing speci…Read More
August 09, 2026, 17:57 IST
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