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With the Indus Waters Treaty remaining in abeyance, Pakistan is entering the crucial agricultural season with shrinking water reserves
India temporarily suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on April 23, 2025, placing the agreement in abeyance. (File)
Pakistan is heading into the Rabi season under growing water stress, with its available water supply expected to fall by around 25 per cent as reservoir levels hit a four-year low. The developing crisis comes amid the continuing India-Pakistan water dispute and puts fresh pressure on the agricultural and financial base that sustains Pakistan’s economy.
Pakistan’s Rabi water availability is expected to be just 21–22 million acre-feet (MAF), creating a significant shortfall as the country prepares for the cropping season beginning October 1. The shortage is particularly consequential for wheat, the key Rabi crop, raising concerns over production and Pakistan’s wider food-security position.
The water squeeze comes at a time when India’s strategic water control has become an important pressure point in relations with Pakistan. With the Indus Waters Treaty remaining in abeyance, Pakistan is entering the crucial agricultural season with shrinking water reserves and limited room to absorb another major shortfall.
The immediate warning sign is Pakistan’s reservoir position. Storage has fallen to a four-year low, leaving the country with substantially less water available as farmers prepare for Rabi sowing. A projected 25 per cent shortage could therefore put additional pressure on irrigation-dependent agriculture and, in turn, on Pakistan’s wheat supply.
The developments also raise questions over how Pakistan has managed the water available to it. More than 1 MAF of water releases have been blamed for worsening the Rabi shortage, adding another layer to the country’s water crisis.
For Pakistan, the consequences extend beyond the fields. Agriculture forms a critical part of the country’s economic base, while wheat availability has direct implications for food security. A prolonged water shortage could therefore translate into wider economic and supply pressures.
The water crunch is also threatening to reopen Sindh-Punjab tensions over provincial water shares. With less water available overall, competition over allocations is expected to intensify.
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) is moving to finalise Rabi water shares, with the three-tier water distribution formula likely to trigger fresh friction between the provinces. The dispute comes at a time when Pakistan has considerably less water to distribute.
With Rabi beginning on October 1, Pakistan is thus facing a combination of shrinking reservoir storage, a projected 25 per cent water shortfall, pressure on wheat production and renewed provincial tensions over water allocation.
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Ask News18Pakistan is heading into the Rabi season with available water supply expected to fall by approximately 25 per cent as reservoir levels hit a four-year low. Total water availability is projected to be around 21–22 million acre-feet (MAF).
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Group Editor, Investigations and Security Affairs, Network18
September 28, 2026, 14:19 IST
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