US President Donald Trump
| Photo Credit:
EVELYN HOCKSTEIN
A US naval blockade
of Iran is a major, open-ended military endeavour that could
trigger fresh retaliation from Tehran and put tremendous strain
on an already fragile ceasefire, experts say.
President Donald Trump, in a social media post after no deal
emerged from peace talks this weekend in Islamabad, said the
U.S. Navy “will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all
Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”
The U.S. military’s Central Command later said the blockade will
only apply to ships going to or from Iran, including all Iranian
ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It will take effect
on Monday at 10 a.m. in Washington (1400 GMT), CENTCOM said.
Trump also said U.S. forces would interdict vessels that have
paid tolls to Iran, even if those ships are now in international
waters. “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage
on the high seas,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The ultimate goal, Trump said, would be to pressure Iran to
end its effective closure of the strait, a choke point for about
20% of the world’s oil, to all but the countries that secure
safe passage from Tehran.
If Trump’s strategy succeeds, he would eliminate Iran’s greatest
point of leverage in negotiations with the United States and
clear the strait again for global trade, potentially lowering
oil prices. But a blockade, experts say, is an act of war that
requires an open-ended commitment of a significant number of
warships.
“Trump wants a quick fix. The reality is, this mission is
difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the
medium to long-term,” said Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon
official during the Biden administration now at The Washington
Institute for Near East Policy.
IRANIAN RETALIATION
The U.S. military has not offered basic details yet about
the blockade, including how many U.S. warships will enforce it,
whether warplanes will be used and whether any Gulf allies will
assist in the effort. Central Command declined to respond to
requests for comment.
With enough warships, the U.S. Navy could set up a blockade that
intimidates many commercial tankers from trying to power through
with Iranian oil, experts say.
But would the United States be prepared to board and seize — or
even damage or sink — ships that try to break the blockade? What
if they carry oil for China, a major power, or U.S. partners
such as India or South Korea?
And what would Iran do? Retired Admiral Gary Roughead, a
former chief of U.S. naval operations, cautioned that Iran could
fire on ships in the Gulf or attack infrastructure of the Gulf
states that host U.S. forces.
“I honestly believe that if we begin to do it, that Iran
will have some kind of a reaction,” Roughead said.
Iran’s threats to shipping have caused global oil prices to
skyrocket about 50% since the U.S. and Israel launched the war
on February 28.
Trump said on Sunday that the price of oil and gasoline may
remain high in the United States through November’s U.S. midterm
elections, which could see Trump’s Republicans lose control of
the U.S. Congress if there is a public backlash. The war has
already been unpopular.
GAS PRICE PROBLEM
Frustrated by Iran’s refusal to end the war on his terms,
Trump on Sunday also floated the possibility of a resumption of
U.S. strikes inside Iran, citing missile factories as one
possibility.
U.S. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat
on the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned the strategy,
noting Iran could send speedboats tomine the strait or put bombs
against tankers.
“How is that going to ever bring down gas prices?” Warner
asked on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
Thousands of U.S. military strikes have severely weakened
Iran’s military. But analysts say Tehran has emerged from the
conflict as a vexing problem for Washington, with a more
hardline leadership and a buried stockpile of highly enriched
uranium.
Trump threatened on Sunday that “any Iranian who fires at
us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded with a statement
warning that military vessels approaching the strait will be
considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and
decisively, underlining the risk of a dangerous escalation.
Stroul said the crisis will require a long-term,
international effort to resolve.
“Over the long run, this will need to be resolved through
diplomacy and international political will,” she said.
Published on April 13, 2026
