A question has been raised whether the Mecca Pact will have a negative impact on our doctrine that Operation Sindoor has only been suspended and that it would be resumed if Pakistan engages in terrorism in the future.
But the Mecca Pact only speaks of aggression, not defence against terrorism, points out Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
IMAGE: Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Türkiye’s Defence Minister Yasar Guler, Turkish Chief of General Staff General Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Saudi Arabia’s Chief of General Staff General Fayyadh bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili at the first committee meeting under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Istanbul, Türkiye, August 31, 2026. Photograph: Murad Sezer/Reuters
Key Points
- The Mecca Pact, a new security alliance including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye, is reshaping Gulf geopolitics, moving beyond traditional US security guarantees.
- The alliance emerged as Gulf countries sought alternative security arrangements following Iranian drone threats, perceiving the US presence itself as a risk.
- Pakistan’s role as a mediator between the US and Iran contributed to its inclusion in the Mecca Pact, raising concerns in India regarding its Operation Sindoor doctrine.
- The pact’s focus on ‘aggression’ rather than ‘terrorism’ may alleviate some Indian concerns, but Israel and the US are likely to view the alliance with suspicion due to Pakistan and Türkiye’s involvement.
- China is expected to welcome the sidelining of American influence in the region, while India is anticipated to become a major partner in the Gulf’s post-war rebuilding efforts.
One unintended consequence of the US-Iran war is the turbulence in the Gulf, which has paved the way for a new security paradigm, which goes beyond the white man’s burden to guard the geese that lay the golden eggs.
Keeping the oil flow to keep the American gasoline stations deliver oil cheap and safe drove the US policy towards the Gulf.
There was no great threat to the region from anywhere, not even from the Communists or the terrorists.
Even after the Iranian revolution and the Iranians kept American diplomats hostage in Teheran, American interests were safe even after 9/11.
There were unconfirmed reports of the US allowing several Iranian nationals to leave soon after the World Trade Centre towers were demolished by passenger jets controlled by unarmed terrorists.
IMAGE: First committee meeting of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Istanbul. Photograph: Murad Sezer/Reuters
Emergence of the Mecca Pact
But when the Iranian drones appeared on the skies over the UAE and Qatar, the Gulf countries sensed a danger to their security even under the American umbrella.
They began looking at other options as the American presence in the Gulf itself was a threat to them in the face of Iranian drones hovering over the Gulf.
There is no possibility for them to ask the Americans to leave, but they seem to be moving in the direction of overlapping security arrangements among themselves within the Islamic brotherhood.
The emergence of Pakistan as a bridge between the Gulf countries began even before the US-Iran war.
Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia on September 17, 2025, which raised eyebrows in India and elsewhere.
Significantly, it included the NATO provision that ‘any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both’, leaving everyone wondering what the provocation for it was.
But that was the beginning of a process, which led to the Mecca Pact of August 7, 2026, adding Türkiye to the group, followed by Kuwait, which signed a bilateral agreement with Pakistan, which expanded military cooperation between Kuwait and the Mecca Pact countries.
The reported reports that Bangladesh is also interested in joining the Pact is ominous, but it has its own preoccupation at the moment.
IMAGE: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after signing a joint defence agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026. Photograph: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via Reuters
India’s Concerns and Geopolitical Implications
India has been uncomfortable with Pakistan emerging as a mediator between the US and Iran, but we also noted that Pakistan had no peace plan.
It was merely providing venues and generally conveying messages as they used to do between the US and China. But the fact is that the profile of Pakistan as a peacemaker has contributed to Pakistan becoming a member of the Mecca Pact, together with Türkiye.
A question has been raised whether the new Pact will have a negative impact on our doctrine that Operation Sindoor has only been suspended and that it would be resumed if Pakistan engages in terrorism in the future. But the Mecca Pact only speaks of aggression, not defence against terrorism.
The US, Iran and Israel should be much more concerned about the Pact than India.
The presence of Türkiye, an old ally of Iran and Pakistan, in the Pact has its own contradictions.
The sidelining of the US as the guarantor of peace in the Gulf is a loss to it as Türkiye has wormed its way into a Gulf alliance.
Israel will be suspicious of the Pact because of the presence of Pakistan in the Pact.
China, on the other hand, will welcome the sidelining of America in the region.
On the whole, the Mecca Pact has altered the geopolitics in the Gulf and Iran has to take some responsibility for attacking the Gulf countries merely to spite the Americans.
Future Outlook and India’s Role
In a way, an expansion of the Pact to include several countries outside the region may weaken it.
The rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia may also deepen the suspicion about the Pact.
Once the US Iran war ends, the Mecca Pact will lead to another reordering of the Gulf and eventually India will be a major partner of the Gulf countries in rebuilding the region.
The Pact will not affect the presence of Indians there as the Gulf countries will not turn to Pakistan to secure workers.
Much depends on the devastation that the war leaves behind.
Iran also will want India to play a role in ending the war, as the Iranian president indicated to Prime Minister Modi at the SCO summit this week.
Whether India will respond to that call will depend on whether President Trump remains as unpredictable as before.
Ambassador T P Sreenivasan is a long-time contributor to Rediff.
You can read his earlier columns here.
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff
